Analisis data time series menggunakan metode ARIMA untuk meramalkan persentase lulusan tepat waktu di FKIP Undana
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.70115/notasi.v3i1.285Keywords:
ARIMA, Time series, Lulusan tepat waktu, Peramalan, FKIP UndanaAbstract
Tingkat kelulusan tepat waktu merupakan salah satu indikator kinerja yang sangat penting di lingkungan pendidikan tinggi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan persentase lulusan tepat waktu di Fakultas Keguruan dan Ilmu Pendidikan (FKIP) Universitas Nusa Cendana selama 5 (lima) tahun kedepan menggunakan metode ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). Data yang digunakan berupa data runtun waktu persentase lulusan tepat waktu dari tahun 2013-2023, yang dikumpulkan setiap periode wisuda (Februari, Juni, dan September). Proses analisis dilakukan melalui tahapan identifikasi stasioneritas data, plot ACF dan PACF, pemilihan model, pengujian parameter model, serta peramalan menggunakan model terbaik. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model terbaik untuk peramalan adalah model ARIMA (2, 2, 1) dengan nilai AIC sebesar -109,6. Model ini digunakan untuk meramalkan 15 periode wisuda ke depan, dari tahun 2024 hingga 2028. Hasil peramalan memperlihatkan tren fluktuatif, namun menunjukkan kecenderungan penurunan pada akhir periode. Peramalan ini dapat dijadikan dasar dalam perencanaan strategis fakultas untuk meningkatkan jumlah lulusan tepat waktu serta meningkatkan kualitas pendidikan secara keseluruhan
References
Ekowati, C. K., Garak, S. S., Madu, A., Hendriani, I., Rimo, E., & Halim, F. A. (2024). Time series data analysis to forecast the percentage of on-time graduates at Nusa Cendana university. Edelweiss Applied Science and Technology, 8(6), 260–278. https://doi.org/10.55214/25768484.v8i6.2051
Nandarie, A. C. A., Al Badri, A. A., & Haryanto, Y. D. (2023). Optimalisasi Model ARIMA dalam Prakiraan Curah Hujan di Jambi. GEOGRAPHIA : Jurnal Pendidikan Dan Penelitian Geografi, 4(1), 39–43. https://doi.org/10.53682/gjppg.v4i1.5776
Permendikbud. (2014). Peraturan Menteri Pendidikan dan Kebudayaan RI No.49 Tahun 2014. A Sourcebook, 1–32.
Rosadi, D. (2016). Analisis Runtun Waktu dan Aplikasinya dengan R. Yogyakarta: Gadjah Mada University Press.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 yosefanny nahuway
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Copyright & License
Authors published in this journal agree to the following terms:
- The copyright of each article is retained by the author (s).
- The author grants the journal the first publication rights with the work simultaneously licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, allowing others to share the work with an acknowledgment of authorship and the initial publication in this journal.
- Authors may enter into separate additional contractual agreements for the non-exclusive distribution of published journal versions of the work (for example, posting them to institutional repositories or publishing them in a book), with acknowledgment of their initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (For example, in the Institutional Repository or on their website) before and during the submission process, as this can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and more extensive citations of published work.
- Articles and all related material published are distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
All writing in this journal is the sole responsibility of the author. BIOS Journal provides open access to anyone so that the information and findings in these articles are helpful for everyone. BIOS can be accessed and downloaded for free, free of charge, following the creative commons license.
License
NOTASI: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
You are free to :
Share: copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
Adapt: remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially
Under the following terms:
Attribution: You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so reasonably but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
ShareAlike: If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original
No additional restrictions: You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
